Hard-Hitting Giants, Ravens Square Off
Football Betting Lines
11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - An attacking and intimidating defense has propelled the New York Giants to the best record in the NFC so far this season, not to mention a Super Bowl victory just nine months ago. It's the same formula that has carried the Baltimore Ravens back to respectability one year after a dreadful 2007 campaign.
The two elite stop units will be on display this Sunday at the Meadowlands, where both the Giants and Ravens put four-game win streaks on the line in what figures to be a hard-hitting interconference slugfest.
Baltimore will bring the NFL's second-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed into the northern New Jersey swamps and has yielded a paltry 65.4 rushing yards per game this year, tops in the league. The Giants can boast similar credentials to Sunday's foe, as the defending world champs are third overall in total defense and have surrendered the second-fewest passing yards in the league.
New York also counters the Ravens' prowess in defending the run with a devastating ground attack that is producing an NFL-best 168.9 yards per game this season. Baltimore is quite adept at running the football as well, having averaged just over 150 yards per week (3rd overall) with a rushing offense that has successfully removed some of the burden from rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.
Both teams played to their strengths in their most recent contests. The Giants rolled up a whopping 219 rushing yards that paved the way for a hard-earned 36-31 road victory over division-rival Philadelphia last Sunday, while Baltimore amassed 162 yards on the ground to overpower the Houston Texans in an impressive 41-13 rout at Reliant Stadium in Week 10.
Last week's triumph enabled the 6-3 Ravens to surpass their entire win total of the previous season's 5-11 disappointment, one that triggered the end of the Brian Billick era. With Indianapolis mounting a late comeback to defeat Pittsburgh this past Sunday, Baltimore is now tied with the Steelers for first place in the AFC North.
The Giants sit atop the competitive NFC East all by themselves at the moment with a gaudy 8-1 mark, and currently hold a one-game edge on Carolina in the race for the conference's No. 1 seed. The team's only blemish on its 2008 slate did come at the hands of an AFC North member, however, a 35-14 setback at Cleveland back in Week 6.
New York is 2-1 against AFC North clubs thus far, having toppled lowly Cincinnati in overtime in September and gutting out a 21-14 verdict at Pittsburgh on October 26. The Ravens will be facing their first test from an NFC East squad in 2008 on Sunday.
SERIES HISTORY
The Ravens are 2-0 against the Giants in regular season games all-time, prevailing by a 24-23 count at the Meadowlands in 1997 and a 37-14 score at M&T Bank Stadium in 2000.
The only other meeting between the teams took place in Super Bowl XXXV, a 34-7 Baltimore romp at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 8-6 in his career against the Ravens, including eight straight wins, followed by five consecutive losses, while serving as head coach with Jacksonville (1995-2002). Baltimore's John Harbaugh will be meeting both Coughlin and the Giants for the first time as a head coach.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
Baltimore's success has been predicated on a persistent running game that has used three different backs in the lead role during the course of this season. Three-time 1,000-yard rusher Willis McGahee (463 rushing yards, 5 TD, 14 receptions) usually gets the heaviest workload when healthy, but the 2007 Pro Bowler's nagging injuries have allowed fullback Le'Ron McClain (366 rushing yards, 5 TD, 15 receptions) and promising rookie Ray Rice (356 rushing yards, 20 receptions) to receive their share of carries. McGahee appeared to be at 100 percent during last week's win over Houston, as he established season- bests of 112 yards and 25 attempts while scoring a pair of touchdowns. The ex- Buffalo Bill had sat out most of the previous Sunday's game at Cleveland with a sprained ankle, with the Rutgers product Rice putting up a career-best 154 yards on 21 totes in his place. The Ravens lead the NFL in both rushing attempts (344) and time of possession (34:19).
Whoever is running the ball for Baltimore on Sunday will be tested by a Giants defense that limited Philadelphia star Brian Westbrook to a mere 26 yards on 13 carries last week and has yet to permit an individual 100-yard rusher in 2008. Middle linebacker and top tackler Antonio Pierce (47 tackles, 1 sack) heads up a formidable front seven that has held the opposition to just 87.7 yards per game on the ground (7th overall), while beefy tackles Barry Cofield (24 tackles, 2 tackles) and Fred Robbins (21 tackles, 5.5 tackles) make it a challenge for teams to run inside.
The Giants will almost certainly crowd the line of scrimmage on early downs and attempt to force Baltimore into obvious passing situations, where defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can unleash his array of blitz packages on the young Flacco. New York stands third in the NFL with 30 sacks and sports a pair of devastating pass-rushing ends in Justin Tuck (39 tackles, 8.5 sacks) and Mathias Kiwanuka (26 tackles, 6 sacks). The defense is giving up only 177.1 passing yards per game and has gotten high-level play out of cornerback Corey Webster (25 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), who ranks among the league leaders with 14 passes defensed. Regular strong safety James Butler (37 tackles, 2 INT) missed last week's win with a knee sprain, but the Giants have rookie first-round pick Kenny Phillips (40 tackles, 1 INT) ready to step in if he's unable to go on Sunday. The Ravens have done a solid job of protecting Flacco, who's been sacked only 17 times in his nine starts.
Flacco (1649 passing yards, 7 TD, 7 INT) may still be learning on the job, but the strong-armed quarterback's weekly improvement under center has been instrumental to Baltimore's recent run. After throwing seven interceptions in the first five games, he has not committed a turnover during the Ravens' four- game win streak and posted a passer rating of over 100 in three of the last four outings. Veteran wideout Derrick Mason (46 receptions, 598 yards, 2 TD) has been the rookie's clear-cut favorite target, but he dislocated his shoulder in the Houston game and may see a reduced role on Sunday. With Mason ailing, two-time Pro Bowl tight end Todd Heap (18 receptions, 2 TD) hauled in two touchdown passes against the Texans and finished with season-bests of five catches and 58 receiving yards.
WHEN THE GIANTS HAVE THE BALL
Like the Ravens, New York favors a ball-control approach on offense and has a bevy of capable backs that have consistently been able to move the chains. The headliner is 264-pound bruiser Brandon Jacobs (806 rushing yards, 9 TD, 5 receptions), who delivered his second straight 100-yard effort with a 126- yard, two-touchdown performance that keyed last weekend's big win over the Eagles. Ball security has been a recent issue, however, as Jacobs has fumbled three times over the Giants' last four games. The gargantuan back is routinely spelled by Derrick Ward (490 rushing yards, 1 TD, 23 receptions), a superior receiver to Jacobs who has provided an effective change of pace. The Giants are averaging a league-best 5.2 yards per carry behind a cohesive offensive line anchored by standout right guard Chris Snee.
New York's punishing ground game will be put to the test by a Baltimore defense that is surrendering a miniscule 2.9 yards per rush attempt and has not allowed an enemy back to eclipse the 100-yard mark in 28 consecutive contests. The Ravens have also yielded only a single rushing touchdown in nine games this year, tied with Tampa Bay for the fewest in the NFL. As usual, the unit is led by perennial All-Pro inside linebacker Ray Lewis (62 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack), who's making a strong case for a 10th career trip to Honolulu, while massive tackle Haloti Ngata (27 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) has earned the distinction of one of the game's premier run-stoppers. The Ravens have had to withstand a season-ending neck injury to rugged strong safety Dawan Landry in Week 2, but the defense hasn't skipped a beat with stand-in Jim Leonhard (36 tackles, 1 sack) taking over.
With the Giants' rushing attack unlikely to meet its customary high standards on Sunday, the offense will have to rely more upon the right arm of quarterback Eli Manning (1926 passing yards, 14 TD, 6 INT), who's been steady but unspectacular in recent weeks following a torrid start to the season. The former No. 1 overall pick has not thrown for over 200 yards in any of the team's last five games, but he's generally been solid save for a three- interception night in last month's loss to Cleveland. Manning has plenty of weapons to choose from in the wide receiver grouping of Plaxico Burress (32 receptions, 4 TD), Amani Toomer (29 receptions, 2 TD) and Steve Smith (35 receptions, 1 TD), while tight end Kevin Boss (19 receptions, 4 TD) has emerged as a preferred red-zone target as of late. The second-year pro has a touchdown catch in three straight games.
Despite a host of changes to the secondary due to injuries, the Ravens have still made it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to put up big numbers. Baltimore ranks ninth overall against the pass (173.4 ypg) and has snared 14 interceptions in its nine games, including four of Houston substitute Sage Rosenfels in this past Sunday's rout. Veteran cornerback Samari Rolle (6 tackles, 2 INT) had one of last week's picks in his return to action after a six-game absence while recovering from neck surgery, while Lewis intercepted two Rosenfels throws on the afternoon. The team did place accomplished cover man Chris McAlister (knee) on injured reserve on Tuesday, but the backfield still has its most important piece around in ball-hawking free safety Ed Reed (21 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD), a four-time Pro Bowler. Manning will also have to pay close attention to athletic linebacker/end hybrid Terrell Suggs (39 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT), Baltimore's best pass rusher, and 12th-year lineman Trevor Pryce (17 tackles, 4 sacks), who has notched a sack in back-to-back weeks.
FANTASY FOCUS
In a matchup where points may very well be at a premium, the safest bets for fantasy success are the two excellent defenses that will take the field on Sunday and 40-something kickers John Carney and Matt Stover, both of whom could play pivotal roles in the outcome of this game. Jacobs has been gold for his owners all year long, but optimism should be tempered this week against a Ravens' stop unit that has been remarkably stingy against the run. McGahee's breakout game last Sunday makes the brittle Baltimore back an attractive option, although he'll likely find the going a little tougher this time around. Flacco still has to earn his stripes as a starting quarterback in the fantasy world, while Manning's a shaky bet in his own right unless there are no better alternatives. Keep an eye on tight ends Heap and Boss, who have each boosted their stock with a recent upgrades in production.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
With Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons having become this season's media darlings for the rookie's impressive play and his team's unforeseen turnaround, Flacco and the Ravens can't help but feel a little slighted for the lack of attention their own dramatic improvement has received. Baltimore has a golden opportunity to make a statement this week, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if it gives the defending world champs all they can handle on Sunday. This is a prove-it game for Flacco as well, whose string of outstanding recent performances have come against the likes of some of the league's dregs. The Giants are a whole different animal, however, and their knack for making life uncomfortable for quarterbacks could result in the Ravens' new franchise face taking a step backward in his progress. Baltimore went toe-to-toe with heavyweights Pittsburgh and Tennessee earlier this season, but came up just short on both occasions. That may be the story again this week.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Giants 16, Ravens 13
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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